Their significance to the gambler has long been recognized (e.g., Reid, 1986), to the extent that the misappropriation of slot machine near-misses has been the focus of legal cases ( Harrigan, 2008). Near-misses occur when an unsuccessful outcome is proximal to the designated win, such as when a chosen horse finishes in second place or when two cherries are displayed on the slot machine payline. In this study, we focus on two common characteristics of gambling games that can be modeled in the laboratory and are known to promote gambling tendencies: the impact of near-misses and the influence of personal control. Thus, even though the winning outcomes are determined largely or purely by chance, the gambler develops an “illusion of control” such that he believes he can master the game and recoup his past losses. Cognitive formulations of gambling (e.g., Langer, 1975 Wagenaar, 1988 Walker, 1992) propose that certain characteristics of gambling games foster an exaggerated confidence in one's chances of winning. In order to identify the etiological processes in problem (or “pathological”) gambling, it is necessary to understand the allure of gambling within wider society. The popularity of gambling might seem surprising given the widespread acceptance among those who gamble that “the house always wins.” This refers to the notion that the expected value of gambling is negative, such that the player will lose money over time. Gambling is a prevalent and culturally ubiquitous form of entertainment that becomes dysfunctional in a small but significant minority (1%–5%), in whom it resembles a substance addiction in several core respects ( Potenza, 2006 Shaffer et al., 2004). These data indicate that near-misses invigorate gambling through the anomalous recruitment of reward circuitry, despite the objective lack of monetary reinforcement on these trials. Insula activity to near-misses correlated with self-report ratings as well as a questionnaire measure of gambling propensity.
Near-miss outcomes recruited striatal and insula circuitry that also responded to monetary wins in addition, near-miss-related activity in the rostral anterior cingulate cortex varied as a function of personal control. This effect was restricted to trials where the subject had personal control over arranging their gamble.
Compared to “full-misses,” near-misses were experienced as less pleasant, but increased desire to play. Using a simplified slot machine task, we measured behavioral and neural responses to gambling outcomes. “Near-miss” events, where unsuccessful outcomes are proximal to the jackpot, increase gambling propensity and may be associated with the addictiveness of gambling, but little is known about the neurocognitive mechanisms that underlie their potency.
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